Gilad Shalit’s Return Home

A rare thing happened today: celebration at both Gaza and West Bank and in Israel itself. Sgt. Gilad Shalit has been released after five years in Hamas captivity. This release was brought about after Israel agreed to release over one thousand members of Hamas. Palestinians are cheering at having their loved ones back and the whole of Israel is celebrating the return of their son.

Good news all around, you could say. Hardly.

First of all, the prisoners released under the agreement have all been convicted of violent crimes and attempts at acts of terrorism.  Israel just released a group of people who have gone the extra mile in proving their dedication to its destruction.  In terms of security risk alone this may have been an unacceptable price to pay.

However, the values of the Israeli society, particularly that of its military, are to be considered. No soldier is to be left behind in the field and Israelis would rather have their boy soldier back and face the consequences. The positive optimism of this act may have brought the whole country together.

Secondly, the political ramifications on both sides are going to be formidable. The release of the long held captive has bolstered the position and popularity of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. His hard line stances on the peace process and continuous expansion of the settlements have always been a major obstacle to the peace process. His Likud Party has allied itself with Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party and together they have taken an uncompromising stand on expanding the settlements on the Occupied Territories. The net result of the prisoner swap may be that the hardliners in Israel gain more political currency.

There is a glimmer of hope in this regard, though. Mr. Netanyahu had always been dismissive of negotiating with the Palestinian Authority. However, his willingness to engage with and pay the price asked by Hamas, the most hardline Palestinian political group is itself a positive sign. If he is willing to incur so much cost in negotiating with Hamas, he may be willing to do business with the PA after all. A surge in popularity may give him the wiggle room to distance himself from Lieberman and other hardliners.

The winner of the situation is clearly Hamas. They have demonstrated that their policy of non-stop violence against Israel has brought more results than the non-violent and cooperative policy of the PLO. They have reason to celebrate today because they have handed their rivals, the Fatah, a crushing political defeat (and this time they did not have to throw them off rooftops).  President Mahmoud Abbas was forced to have the West Bank leader of Hamas, Sheikh Hassan Yousef stand next to him during his speech welcoming back the prisoners. The next election of the Palestinian Authority may not bode well for the peace camp in both Palestine and Israel.

The greatest cause for worry is the small terrorist groups which are being tolerated by Hamas in Gaza. They have already vowed to make more attempts at kidnapping Israeli soldiers. They may be happy in Israel today but by accepting the terms of Hamas, they may have opened a whole new can of worms.

The frail and malnourished condition of Sgt. Shalit may give us a lot of pause as to how Hamas treats its prisoners. In the five years of his captivity, he was not allowed a single visit from the Red Cross- a severe breach of the human rights conventions as well as Geneva conventions. Hamas’ treatment of Palestinian prisoners who are political dissenters is even worse. Yet they may stand to gain the most from these circumstances.

Celebrate if you like, for today has been a rare good day for both sides. But don’t hold your breath for the peace process.